President Who?

For the first time in the history of the United States, there is a real possibility that the next President will not be a white male. Two days ago, Barack Obama launched http://www.barackobama.com/, on which he posted a video and text message announcing the formation of a presidential exploratory committee, set up to assess his shot at winning the oval office. He will announce his intentions on Feb. 10 in Springfield, Ill., Abraham Lincoln's hometown. This morning, Hillary Clinton, fresh from a trip to Iraq over the weekend, led a media rush, with appearances on the NBC and CBS morning shows and NPR, effectively cutting into Barack Obama's media momentum. With 362 days until the Iowa Caucus, the primaries have begun.

To be fair to the rest of the Democratic hopefuls, there is no telling how the race will turn out. John Edwards is a viable candidate with Presidential campaign experience, Joe Biden and Christopher Dodd have strong networks of support in the northeast and Tom Vilsack is the two-term Governor of the most important primary state, Iowa. To the relief of many, John Kerry, despite winning the second most popular votes ever, does not have a chance. Dennis Kucinich, Al Sharpton and Wesley Clark have fervent pockets of supporters, but are also not serious contenders.

The barrage of skepticism surrounding Barack Obama's chances has just started appearing in the press. Articles point to past political stars, the most recent example being Howard Dean, who burnt out faster than digital camera batteries. Obviously, parallels can be drawn. Premature Time Magazine covers plastered with the "Next President?" can be poison in disguise. On the flip side, there have been many charismatic political stars who have made it through tough campaigns to find themselves yielding the Presidential seal. Two come to mind immediately, William Clinton and John F. Kennedy. Barack Obama has both the intelligence and charisma of Presidents Clinton and Kennedy, Howard Dean did not possess enough of the former and none of the later characteristic. Two years ago, I was waiting for my father at Dulles Airport when no other than Howard Dean came walking through the arrival terminal. No one seemed to notice, or care. Can you imagine the raucous Barack Obama, Bill Clinton or John F. Kennedy would have caused in Dean's shoes?